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VENTE TERMINÉE
Penser aux paris : prendre des décisions plus intelligentes quand vous n'avez pas tous les faits
État :
Prix :
12,37 USD
Environ11,39 EUR
Livraison :
Lieu où se trouve l'objet : Carlstadt, New Jersey, États-Unis
Délai de livraison :
Estimé entre le ven. 24 mai et le mar. 28 mai à 43230
Retours :
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Détails sur le vendeur
- 98,9% d'évaluations positives
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Numéro de l'objet eBay :296372943542
Dernière mise à jour le 28 avr. 2024 19:10:31 CEST. Afficher toutes les modificationsAfficher toutes les modifications
Caractéristiques de l'objet
- État
- Release Year
- 2018
- ISBN
- 9780735216358
- Book Title
- Thinking in Bets : Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
- Item Length
- 8.5in
- Publisher
- Penguin Publishing Group
- Publication Year
- 2018
- Format
- Hardcover
- Language
- English
- Item Height
- 1in
- Genre
- Education, Psychology, Business & Economics
- Topic
- Industrial Management, Decision-Making & Problem Solving, Cognitive Psychology & Cognition, Strategic Planning
- Item Width
- 5.7in
- Item Weight
- 14.3 Oz
- Number of Pages
- 288 Pages
À propos de ce produit
Product Information
Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result. In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck? Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making? Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes. By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.
Product Identifiers
Publisher
Penguin Publishing Group
ISBN-10
0735216355
ISBN-13
9780735216358
eBay Product ID (ePID)
239667252
Product Key Features
Book Title
Thinking in Bets : Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
Format
Hardcover
Language
English
Topic
Industrial Management, Decision-Making & Problem Solving, Cognitive Psychology & Cognition, Strategic Planning
Publication Year
2018
Genre
Education, Psychology, Business & Economics
Number of Pages
288 Pages
Dimensions
Item Length
8.5in
Item Height
1in
Item Width
5.7in
Item Weight
14.3 Oz
Additional Product Features
Lc Classification Number
Hd30.6.D85 2018
Reviews
"An elegant fusion of poker-table street-smarts and cognitive science insights. This book will make you both a shrewder and wiser player in the game of life." -- Philip E. Tetlock, author of Superforecasting "Thinking in Bets offers a compelling, and eminently useful, new way to think about life's decisions. Annie Duke has written an important, and often hilarious, book that will help you understand your own shortcomings--and make smarter choices as a result. You can bet on it." --Maria Konnikova, author of The Confidence Game and Mastermind "The insights Duke offers in this book are incredibly helpful when we contemplate decisions in the face of multiple possible outcomes, and that renders her book enormously applicable to the world of investing." - Howard Marks, co-chairman, Oaktree Capital Management and author of The Most Important Thing "Through wonderful storytelling and sly wit, Annie Duke has crafted the ultimate guide to thinking about risk. We can all learn how to make better decisions by learning from someone who made choices for a living, with millions on the line." -- Charles Duhigg, author of The Power of Habit and Smarter Faster Better "Brilliant. Buy ten copies and give one to everyone you work with. It's that good." --Seth Godin, author of The Icarus Deception "A mind-bending and indispensable book for entrepreneurs, leaders, and anyone who faces risk on a regular basis." -Olivia Fox Cabane, author of The Net and the Butterfly, "An elegant fusion of poker-table street-smarts and cognitive science insights. This book will make you both a shrewder and wiser player in the game of life." -- Philip E. Tetlock, author of Superforecasting "Thinking in Bets offers a compelling, and eminently useful, new way to think about life's decisions. Annie Duke has written an important, and often hilarious, book that will help you understand your own shortcomings--and make smarter choices as a result. You can bet on it." --Maria Konnikova, author of The Confidence Game and Mastermind "The insights Duke offers in this book are incredibly helpful when we contemplate decisions in the face of multiple possible outcomes, and that renders her book enormously applicable to the world of investing." - Howard Marks, co-chairman, Oaktree Capital Management and author of The Most Important Thing "Through wonderful storytelling and sly wit, Annie Duke has crafted the ultimate guide to thinking about risk. We can all learn how to make better decisions by learning from someone who made choices for a living, with millions on the line." -- Charles Duhigg, author of The Power of Habit and Smarter Faster Better "Brilliant. Buy ten copies and give one to everyone you work with. It's that good." --Seth Godin, author of The Icarus Deception "A mind-bending and indispensable book for entrepreneurs, leaders, and anyone who faces risk on a regular basis." -Olivia Fox Cabane, author of The Net and the Butterfly "A highly-readable balance between memorable, real-world analogies and hardcore behavioral science studies... The book is packed with insights." - John Greathouse, Forbes, A mind-bending and indispensable book for entrepreneurs, leaders, and anyone who faces risk on a regular basis.
Copyright Date
2018
Lccn
2017-042666
Dewey Decimal
658.40353
Intended Audience
Trade
Dewey Edition
23
Illustrated
Yes
Description de l'objet fournie par le vendeur
Le vendeur assume l'entière responsabilité de cette annonce.
Numéro de l'objet eBay :296372943542
Dernière mise à jour le 28 avr. 2024 19:10:31 CEST. Afficher toutes les modificationsAfficher toutes les modifications
Livraison et expédition
Lieu où se trouve l'objet :
Carlstadt, New Jersey, États-Unis
Destination :
Afghanistan, Afrique du Sud, Albanie, Algérie, Allemagne, Andorre, Angola, Anguilla, Antigua-et-Barbuda, Arabie saoudite, Argentine, Arménie, Aruba, Australie, Autriche, Azerbaïdjan, Bahamas, Bahreïn, Bangladesh, Belgique, Belize, Bermudes, Bhoutan, Bolivie, Bosnie-Herzégovine, Botswana, Brunei Darussalam, Brésil, Bulgarie, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Bénin, Cambodge, Cameroun, Canada, Cap-Vert, Chili, Chine, Chypre, Colombie, Corée du Sud, Costa Rica, Croatie, Côte d'Ivoire, Danemark, Djibouti, Espagne, Estonie, Fidji, Finlande, France, Gabon, Gambie, Ghana, Gibraltar, Grenade, Groenland, Grèce, Guatemala, Guinée, Guinée équatoriale, Guinée-Bissau, Guyana, Géorgie, Haïti, Honduras, Hong Kong, Hongrie, Inde, Indonésie, Irlande, Islande, Israël, Italie, Jamaïque, Japon, Jordanie, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kirghizistan, Kiribati, Koweït, Laos, Lesotho, Lettonie, Liban, Liberia, Liechtenstein, Lituanie, Luxembourg, Macao, Macédoine, Madagascar, Malaisie, Malawi, Maldives, Mali, Malte, Maroc, Maurice, Mauritanie, Mexique, Moldavie, Monaco, Mongolie, Montserrat, Monténégro, Mozambique, Namibie, Nauru, Nicaragua, Niger, Nigeria, Norvège, Nouvelle-Zélande, Népal, Oman, Ouganda, Ouzbékistan, Pakistan, Panama, Papouasie-Nouvelle-Guinée, Paraguay, Pays-Bas, Philippines, Pologne, Portugal, Pérou, Qatar, Roumanie, Royaume-Uni, Rwanda, République centrafricaine, République dominicaine, République du Congo, République démocratique du Congo, République tchèque, Saint-Christophe-et-Niévès, Saint-Marin, Saint-Vincent-et-les-Grenadines, Sainte-Lucie, Salvador, Samoa occidentales, Serbie, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Singapour, Slovaque, Slovénie, Sri Lanka, Suisse, Suriname, Suède, Swaziland, Sénégal, Tadjikistan, Tanzanie, Taïwan, Tchad, Thaïlande, Togo, Tonga, Trinité-et-Tobago, Tunisie, Turkménistan, Turquie, Uruguay, Vanuatu, Vatican, Viêt Nam, Wallis-et-Futuna, Yémen, Zambie, Zimbabwe, Égypte, Émirats arabes unis, Équateur, Érythrée, États-Unis, Éthiopie, Îles Caïmans, Îles Salomon, Îles Turques-et-Caïques
Exclus :
APO/FPO, Barbade, Guadeloupe, Guyane, Libye, Martinique, Nouvelle-Calédonie, Polynésie française, Protectorats américains, Russie, Réunion, Ukraine, Venezuela
| Livraison et expédition | à | Service | Livraison*Afficher les instructions de livraison |
|---|---|---|---|
| Livraison gratuite | États-Unis | Standard Shipping | Estimé entre le ven. 24 mai et le mar. 28 mai à 43230 |
| 8,99 USD (environ 8,27 EUR) | États-Unis | Expedited Shipping | Estimé entre le ven. 24 mai et le jeu. 30 mai à 43230 |
| Délai d'expédition |
|---|
| Envoi sous 2 jours ouvrés après réception du paiement. |
| Taxes |
|---|
| Des taxes pourront être appliquées lors de la finalisation de l'achat. En savoir plusEn savoir plus sur le paiement des taxes sur les achats eBay |
Taxe de vente pour l'objet n°296372943542
Taxe de vente pour l'objet n°296372943542
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Conditions de retour
| Une fois l'objet reçu, contactez le vendeur dans un délai de | Mode de remboursement | Frais de retour |
|---|---|---|
| 30 jours | Remboursement | L'acheteur paie les frais de retour |
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| Détails des conditions de retour |
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| Retours acceptés |
Détails du paiement
Modes de paiement
Inscrit comme vendeur professionnel
Évaluations en tant que vendeur (111.533)
c***5 (459)- Évaluations laissées par l'acheteur.
Dernier mois
Achat vérifié
as described great
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Very nice condition. Thank you!
n***d (3578)- Évaluations laissées par l'acheteur.
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Quickly resolved issue with item. Recommend.